Reverse Migration: Quitting The Big City

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The Pandemic Has Thrown Life Out Of Gear For Many Professionals. Salary Cuts, Job Loss And Fear Of Catching The Virus Is Driving Urban Professionals From Indian And International Cities Back To Their Towns And Villages. Realty+ Looks At How This Reverse Migration From Blue Collared To White Collared Professionals Is Creating A Paradigm Shift In Realty Sector. The last three months of pandemic and ensued lockdown witnessed the plight of daily wage earners journeying on foot to their far off villages. The reasons for their migration were loss of job, shelter and most importantly the fear of catching virus that has been creating havoc in densely populated metro cities. Same are the reasons for the mid-level professionals moving from cities in India to their hometowns as well as the professionals working in US, UK, Gulf or other countries. India marks its first quarter with the largest repatriation exercise it has ever done, bringing back Indians from some 31 countries, by air and sea. India has evacuated its citizens multiple times, from China, Italy, countries in Europe, America, and the Gulf. The common thread among all these varied set of workers is the financial challenges and the idea of getting the disease while away from families. S Irudaya Rajan of the Centre for Development Studies said, “I am expecting 10-20% of the people to move. But if the pandemic continues for a long time, there will be job losses in every industry and even people who are working from home may lose their jobs. There is a need to create medium-tier cities. So we need to reimagine the city itself as well as jobs.” REVERSE MIGRATION AS AN OPPORTUNITY The return of migrants to hometowns which are mostly the tier- II and III cities has also opened up many opportunities for these regions. The unsustainable livelihoods and lack of better job opportunities had prompted these professionals, in the first place to uproot from their home and find better life in Indian metros or cities abroad. That’s changing now. With the advent of E-commerce and proliferation of smart phones and internet in small towns of India, the opportunities for business and employment for educated professionals have increased manifold. Moreover, with work no longer tied to a physical office in a big city, the white collared professionals can work from anywhere without having to pay high rents in the city. According to Business Researcher Parikshit Sinha, white collar workers, locals, state governments and businesses should come together to create employment opportunities in small town India. “in Navi Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Jamnagar for instance, the government has created a central business district, with railway infrastructure and last-mile connectivity which can make a permanent work-from-home set up tangible way of life.” Bengaluru, NCR, Pune, Chennai, and Hyderabad saw the most number of people moving away from the state. Delhi, Mumbai, and Kolkata retained most of their people BOOST IN HOUSING DEMAND Technology has made working from home easy. Following the rationale of saving on travel expenses and high rents in the city, many professionals are willing to continue to work from hometown permanently. A recent consumer survey taken during the lockdown period indicates that of the respondents who preferred to invest in Tier 2 & 3 cities in 2020, 61% are end-users and almost 55% are aged under 35 years. At least 47% of respondents are focused on affordable properties priced within INR 45 lakh, followed by 34% who are looking for mid-segment homes priced between INR 45-90 lakh. The residential segment will see a manifold increase in demand for townships projects which offer a controlled environment. In terms of supply, township projects have less than 5% overall share in the top 7 cities as on date. Further market consolidation is expected with the increased preference for branded developers. Financially strong organized players are likely to occupy 75%-80% market share in the coming years. This increasing reverse migration to Tier II and Tier III cities due to the lockdown, dwindling job prospects in metros and other factors has presented affordable housing as the most attractive option for living. Pradeep Aggarwal, Founder & Chairman, Signature Global and Chairman, ASSOCHAM – National Council on Real estate, Housing & Urban Development stated, “The buyers can think about buying the properties and not just renting it due to its affordable price range coupled with series of amenities offered. The new residential segment coming up in these small towns is likely to garner considerable interest from returning NRIs as well due to the advanced lifestyle some of the upcoming housing projects offer. As a matter of fact, some are even looking beyond their hometowns. Rather than affordability, based on the city’s physical and social infrastructure, many professionals are ready to buy house in other smaller cities than their own home town. A situation like Covid has shown that life is uncertain on multiple levels. Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Property Consultants was of the view, “Smaller towns and cities would consequently see a spurt in housing demand. Primary demand may skew towards rental housing – purchase demand would initially come from local investors keen to meet the rental demand. Many NRIs will also return to India amidst dwindling job prospects, particularly in the US and European nations which account for nearly 70% global cases. For them, the top 7 cities would be the best options but many will consider smaller cities where they can be close to their families." The reality of today is that many metro city residents are heading to smaller cities they once looked down on, swapping their pricey apartments for more affordable homes. While, the march of homeward-bound migrant labourers has been much visible, the urban professionals' escape to their hometowns has eluded news headlines. And several of them are not returning. The maximum number of urban professionals migrating back to their hometowns were from the IT & ITES sector. This may be, in part, due to the readily available option to work from home. It also explains why cities like Bengaluru and Hyderabad, home to this sector, witnessed the most migration. The trend offers an opportunity for home towns of these techies to become smaller tech hubs in days to come.