UN Forecasts Indian Economy 'Highly Fragile'
UN forecasts India's economy to grow by 7.5 percent this calendar year and rebound to 10.5 percent next year with the caveat that the outlook is "highly fragile" because of the brutal COVID-19 second wave. The mid-year World Economic Situation and Prospects report said that for a global recovery universal access to COVID-19 vaccine is critical but in India "access to vaccines is unequal and insufficient to meet the massive demand." Given the fluid situation, India's growth outlook in 2021 is highly fragile, it warned. It noted that while "India has been particularly affected by a brutal second wave, which is overwhelming the public health system in large parts of the country", the country also "has expanded vaccine eligibility and is ramping up supply in every possible manner". The mid-year forecasts are 0.2 percent higher than that made in January for this year and it has been revised up by 4.2 percent higher for next year. The report forecast investment growth to plunge by a negative 10.2 percent this year. The UN projection for India is far lower than the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) upbeat 12.5 per cent forecast last month just as the COVID-19 surge was beginning. But there is also a difference in the time periods two organisations use -- UN follows the calendar year, while the IMF uses the fiscal year under which the growth forecast would take in to account the growth in the first months of 2021.
Tags : News/Views economy Indian forecast COVID-19 second wave World Economic Situation and Prospects report