Lack of Demand Keeps Cement Prices Muted

As the support from pent-up demand fades, the sequential volume recovery has lost momentum in August. Consequently, cement prices have corrected across most regions in India. The latest dealers’ channel check by Kotak Institutional Equities showed that all-India, excluding-South, average cement prices corrected by 2-3% to ?366/bag. One cement bag weighs 50 kilograms. Dealers indicate that easing up of the pent-up demand, intermittent regional lockdowns and a severe monsoon have softened demand and impacted prices. However, prices remain up 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) due to a sharp 10% month-on-month hike in May 2020, Kotak report stated. Region wise, cement prices fell the most in the North by ?10/bag to ?353/bag, followed by the West and the Central markets. In the East, prices declined the least, by ?3/bag to ?338/bag in August, showed the channel check. It should be noted that September is a weak quarter for the sector and cement prices remain muted. August is seasonally the weakest month of the year for cement volumes, weighed by heavy monsoon rainfall across most parts of the country. Data for the past 25 years suggests August volumes are 12% lower than the annual average. However, this time around, cement prices are expected to remain muted for longer given that demand revival would be prolonged, analysts cautioned.